Fair Shake suggests a trade only when the two sides are close in market value and in points value, and both teams' best starting lineups gain about the same number of points a week. Every trade gets a 0 to 100 score and a letter grade for each team, plus a separate fairness score.
1. Values for your league
Trade values come from FantasyCalc, which calculates them from real trades in fantasy leagues. Fair Shake downloads values daily for 48 formats: redraft and dynasty, one QB and Superflex, standard, half PPR and full PPR, and 8, 10, 12 and 14 teams. A 16-team league uses the 14-team values.
Then it adjusts for what those formats do not cover:
| Setting | Adjustment |
|---|---|
| 6-point passing touchdowns | Quarterbacks +8% (one-QB) or +5% (Superflex) |
| TE premium +0.5 per catch | Tight ends +10% |
| TE premium +1.0 per catch | Tight ends +20% |
| Keeper league | 75% redraft value, 25% dynasty value |
In a keeper league you can enter the round each player costs to keep, and a Sleeper import fills it in from this season's draft. With a round entered, the dynasty part of a player's value is reduced by what that pick would bring: the dynasty value of the player usually taken in the middle of that round. A star kept in the first round keeps little of that part; a player kept in the tenth round keeps most of it.
Points value
Market value says what managers pay. Points value says what a player is scoring. For every quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end, Fair Shake works out points per game this season in your league's scoring, with your points per catch, passing touchdown points and tight end premium. A player with few games is pulled toward what the market expects: his average gets 5 extra games at the scoring of the player ranked where the market ranks him. A full season also counts for more than a few weeks: his own average is reduced by 25% of the share of his team's games he missed, so missing 6 of 8 takes about a fifth off it and playing every game takes nothing. Trade cards show the games he played when he missed some. That average is then priced at what the market pays for players at the same position who score within about 1.5 points per game of it. Two players who score the same get the same points value, whatever their names. Dynasty leagues use market value alone, because it prices in future seasons. Keeper leagues use points value for the redraft part.
Kickers, defenses and defensive players
FantasyCalc does not price kickers, team defenses or defensive players (IDP), so Fair Shake prices them from this season's points per game, worked out from nflverse's game stats with Sleeper's default scoring (its IDP scoring for defensive players). A player at the waiver-wire level for your league, the first one past every team's starters, is worth 200, about what a free agent is worth at any position. Each point per game above that level adds the same value it would for an offensive player. A player with few games is pulled toward the typical score at the position, kickers and defenses most of all, because their scoring swings the most from week to week. These values count this season only, in every league type. A league that does not start a position values its players at 0.
Injuries
Injury designations come from the NFL's injury reports and roster moves, through nflverse, and are refreshed daily. The market already prices injuries in, but with a lag, so the discount is small enough not to count an injury twice.
| Designation | Redraft | Dynasty |
|---|---|---|
| Questionable | -2% | none |
| Doubtful | -7% | -1% |
| Out | -10% | -2% |
| Suspended | -15% | -3% |
| PUP list | -20% | -5% |
| Injured reserve | -25% | -5% |
Keeper leagues use the average of the two columns.
2. Your best lineup, before and after
For each team, Fair Shake fills your league's starting slots with the best players available: quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end slots first, then flex, then Superflex, then kicker, defense and defensive slots. It does this before the trade and again after it. Fair Shake measures a lineup's change against its offensive starters, so an offensive trade grades the same whether or not the league also starts a kicker, a defense or defensive players.
- Each quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end counts for his expected points per game in your league's scoring, the same average his points value starts from. Kickers, defenses and defensive players count for how far they score above the waiver wire.
- Players on injured reserve, the PUP list or suspended do not start. A spot with nobody to start is filled with the best player likely left on your waiver wire.
- Your best 3 bench players count at 15% each, for bye weeks and injuries.
- In every league type, lineups use this season's points, not long-term value. A rookie who will not start this year does not improve this year's lineup.
- A team that trades away a starter needs someone to play that position. When a team gets nobody back at a position it gives a starter up at, and the player who takes over scores more than 3 points a week less, every point past 3 counts double against that team. At quarterback this asks who plays the position itself, plus the superflex spot when a quarterback held it. Running backs, receivers and tight ends share the flex, so they count together: a receiver who comes back and starts makes up for a running back who leaves, and only what the three positions lose together, past 3 points a week, counts double.
3. Grades
Each team's grade blends two things: how much its starting lineup changes, and how much value it gains or gives up.
- A lineup that improves by 3% or more gets full credit.
- A value gain of 25% or more gets full credit.
How the two are weighted depends on the league and on where the team stands:
| League | Lineup weight | Value weight |
|---|---|---|
| Redraft | 60% | 40% |
| Keeper, contending / middle / rebuilding | 60% / 50% / 30% | 40% / 50% / 70% |
| Dynasty, contending / middle / rebuilding | 60% / 40% / 15% | 40% / 60% / 85% |
The blend runs from -1 (worst) to +1 (best). The score is 70 plus 30 times the blend when it is positive, and 70 plus 70 times the blend when it is negative, so losing ground costs more than gaining it earns. A trade that changes nothing scores 70.
| Score | Grade | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 97 and up | A+ | Clearly better for this team |
| 92 to 96 | A | |
| 88 to 91 | A- | |
| 84 to 87 | B+ | Better for this team |
| 80 to 83 | B | |
| 76 to 79 | B- | |
| 72 to 75 | C+ | About even for this team |
| 68 to 71 | C | |
| 64 to 67 | C- | |
| 58 to 63 | D+ | Worse for this team |
| 52 to 57 | D | |
| Below 52 | F | Much worse for this team |
4. Fairness score
Fairness runs two checks and keeps the lower score.
- Value: the two sides are compared by market value and by points value, and the lower counts. Each is 100 minus 2.5 points for every 1% of value gap, so a 4% gap scores 90 and a 20% gap scores 50. The one that counts also sets the value part of both grades.
- Points a week: Fair Shake builds each team's best starting lineup before and after the trade, from each player's points per game this season, and compares what the two lineups gain. It adds 1 point to each gain, so differences under about a point a week barely count, then divides the smaller gain by the larger.
| You gain a week | They gain a week | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | 100 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 83 |
| 2 | 1 | 67 |
| 3 | 0 | 25 |
| 3 | lose 1 or more | 0 |
The marker on the fairness bar slides toward whichever team the lower check favors. In dynasty leagues the two values are the same, and there is no points-a-week check: trades there are made for seasons to come, and draft picks score nothing this year.
5. Packages of players
- Package value is the sum of each player's value raised to the power 1.3, then taken back down. Two players worth 4,000 come to about 6,800, because one roster spot holding a better player is worth more than two holding lesser ones.
- A player worth less than 15% of the best player in the same package is treated as a throw-in, and that package is skipped.
- If a trade leaves a team over its roster limit, the team keeps its starting kicker, defense and defensive players, cuts its least valuable other players, and those cuts count against the trade.
- Trades use each team's 16 most valuable players and picks. On a deeper roster, the other players still count toward lineups but are not offered in trades.
6. What gets suggested
| Setting | Fairness at least | Each team's score at least |
|---|---|---|
| Strict | 80 | 74 |
| Normal | 70 | 72 |
| Loose | 60 | 70 |
When nothing passes, Fair Shake says there is no fair trade and explains why. It compares each team's starters with a typical starter in a league your size to find where each team is thin and where it has spare starters on the bench. The usual reasons: neither team has a spare starter, both teams need the same positions, or the trades that would help both lineups are too far apart in value, or help one lineup much more than the other. The three closest options are shown underneath.
7. What it does not know
- It does not use weekly projections or matchups. Points a week come from each player's points per game this season. Bye weeks do not change grades; a trade that leaves three or more of a team's starters on bye in the same week gets a note saying so.
- Points per game look back. A player who just changed roles or came back from an injury can score differently from here on, and the market often sees that first.
- It estimates your waiver wire unless every team in your league is saved.
- It does not know how a particular leaguemate values players.
- Values are market estimates. They move every day, and a good trade for your team can still be the wrong one for your season.